This week, most of the major figures in film-making will gather in Hollywood for the 89th annual Oscars ceremony. You can bank on seeing a few painfully inane red carpet interviews, several fawning acceptance speeches and some jokes that fall flat. In all likelihood, there will be one more certainty on the night – an award or two the logic of which will be questioned for years to come.
It’s now over a decade since race-relations melodrama Crash pipped Brokeback Mountain to the 2006 Best Picture award and it still leads most lists as one of history’s least explicable choices. But despite the occasional curve ball, the Oscars are actually remarkably predictable – if you look in the right place for information.